Random Political Joke - Politicians say, “We’re all in this together,” which is true, as long as “this” is a burning building and they have the only exit map.
United States
President Donald Trump
Impeachment Estimate
Updated: 2026-01-06
Model Risk: 45%
Public Impeachment Search Heat: 100%
Regime Risk: 33% ? Regime Risk is completely separate from the impeachment estimate and is not used to calculate it. Regime Risk is an assessment of the overall stability of the current government regime, based on factors such as political unrest, economic instability, and social tensions. A high Regime Risk indicates a greater likelihood of significant political upheaval, which could lead to changes in leadership through means other than formal impeachment processes.
30-Day Impeachment Trend
30-Day Regime Risk Trend
Latest News
Stephen Miller Asserts U.S. Has Right to Take Greenland - The New York Times
Greenland should be part of the United States, says a senior Trump adviser - The Economist
Live updates: Trump warns Venezuela to cooperate or risk new U.S. military attack - NBC News
Latin America fears what comes next after the Venezuela raid - The Economist
Quick Summary of United States & Donald Trump
The United States has experienced significant political turbulence involving former President Donald Trump, particularly regarding impeachment proceedings. Trump faced two impeachments during his presidency, both of which were historic and contentious. The first, in December 2019, centered on allegations that he abused his power by pressuring Ukraine to investigate political rival Joe Biden and obstructed Congress by withholding documents and blocking testimony. The Senate acquitted him in February 2020, with most Republicans voting against conviction. The second impeachment occurred in January 2021, following the Capitol riot on January 6, where Trump was accused of inciting an insurrection against the U.S. government. Though the House voted to impeach, the Senate again acquitted him after he had already left office, with only seven Republicans joining Democrats in supporting conviction. Beyond impeachment, Trump has remained a polarizing figure in U.S. politics, with ongoing legal and political challenges shaping his post-presidency. Multiple investigations, including those related to his business dealings, election interference, and handling of classified documents, have kept him in the spotlight. In 2023, Trump became the first former U.S. president to face criminal charges, with indictments in New York, Florida, Georgia, and Washington, D.C., covering a range of alleged offenses. These developments have intensified debates over accountability, the rule of law, and the future of American democracy, as Trump continues to wield significant influence within the Republican Party and remains a leading candidate for the 2024 presidential election.Deep Dive Into United States & Donald Trump
International Relations and Global Perceptions of U.S. Democracy
The United States remains a central actor in global politics, and formal alliances and international commitments are largely intact. Nonetheless, Trump’s America First orientation during his term in office and his continuing influence over Republican foreign-policy debates have created uncertainty about the United States’ long-term reliability in areas such as NATO commitments, multilateral institutions, and trade agreements. Allies and rivals closely watch domestic controversies involving Trump as indicators of internal U.S. division and potential policy swings following future elections. While this has not produced a full-scale crisis in international relations, it has moderately increased perceptions of volatility in U.S. foreign policy and raised questions abroad about the stability and predictability of U.S. democratic governance, particularly if Trump or similarly oriented figures regain executive power.
Media Environment and Information Ecosystem
The media landscape is highly fragmented and polarized, with Trump acting as a central reference point for both supportive and critical outlets. His long-standing attacks on mainstream media as 'fake news' and his promotion of alternative media ecosystems have deepened divides in information sources and trust. Supporters and critics often inhabit distinct media and social-media spheres, leading to divergent factual baselines and interpretations of political events, including Trump’s legal cases, policy initiatives, and public statements. While this fragmentation is not unique to the United States, Trump’s ongoing relevance sustains a media environment in which coverage is heavily personalized and conflict-focused, contributing to mistrust, selective exposure, and difficulties in establishing shared factual ground, but without complete collapse of professional journalism or widespread censorship.
Political Polarization and Partisan Conflict
Partisan polarization in the United States has reached historically high levels, with Donald Trump functioning as both a symbol and driver of sharper ideological sorting and affective polarization. His prominence has deepened intra-party divisions (especially within the Republican Party between more traditional conservatives and Trump-aligned populists) and inter-party hostility, including disputes over the 2020 election’s legitimacy and the boundaries of acceptable political rhetoric. While institutions continue to function and routine governance persists, the intensity of elite and mass-level polarization—frequently organized around Trump’s persona—exceeds what is typical for stable democracies in non-crisis periods and contributes to recurring confrontations over impeachment, investigations, and the scope of executive power.
Social Stability and Risk of Political Violence
The overall social order remains intact: daily life, economic activity, and regular governance continue, and most political engagement is peaceful. However, the events surrounding the 2020 election, including the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol, along with sporadic incidents of politically motivated threats and isolated violence, indicate a non-trivial risk profile. Trump’s rhetoric about elections, institutions, and political opponents—perceived by supporters as combative but justified, and by critics as incitement—has been cited in debates over political radicalization and extremism. While there is no widespread sustained unrest at present, concern persists among scholars and officials that highly polarized narratives around Trump, combined with easy access to weapons and online radicalization channels, could fuel episodic violence or threats against public officials, keeping tensions above normal levels for an established democracy.
Social Tensions and Identity Politics
Social tensions linked to race, immigration, religion, gender, and national identity remain pronounced. Trump’s political style—emphasizing nationalism, restrictive immigration policies, and skepticism toward certain social movements—has intensified both support and opposition across identity lines. His rhetoric is viewed by supporters as a corrective to perceived cultural marginalization and political correctness, and by critics as contributing to nativism and exclusion. This has heightened contestation over issues such as policing, border control, and the symbolic politics of flags, monuments, and history curricula. Despite the absence of sustained nationwide violence at present, the underlying grievances and identity-based cleavages remain salient and periodically erupt in localized protests, counter-protests, and heated public discourse.
Trust in Democratic Institutions and Electoral Processes
Trust in core democratic institutions—especially elections, the judiciary, law enforcement agencies, and legislative bodies—has become a central fault line, with Trump playing a major role in contesting institutional legitimacy. His repeated claims that the 2020 presidential election was fraudulent, his criticism of investigative and judicial processes involving himself and his associates, and his broader narrative of a hostile 'establishment' have contributed to sharply divergent perceptions of institutional fairness between his supporters and opponents. While courts, Congress, and state-level authorities continue to operate and transfer of power has occurred, the persistence of beliefs in widespread electoral fraud among segments of the population and the politicization of investigations into Trump have elevated tensions to a level that is notable and potentially destabilizing for a mature democracy, though not yet amounting to systemic breakdown.
Impeachment Color Legend
RED >= 50%ORANGE >= 34%
YELLOW >= 18%
GREEN < 18%