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Philippines
President Bongbong Marcos
Impeachment Estimate
Updated: 2026-01-06
Model Risk: 15%
Public Impeachment Search Heat: 0%
Regime Risk: 17% ? Regime Risk is completely separate from the impeachment estimate and is not used to calculate it. Regime Risk is an assessment of the overall stability of the current government regime, based on factors such as political unrest, economic instability, and social tensions. A high Regime Risk indicates a greater likelihood of significant political upheaval, which could lead to changes in leadership through means other than formal impeachment processes.
30-Day Impeachment Trend
30-Day Regime Risk Trend
Latest News
Marcos vs. Marcos: The New Front in Philippine Politics - The New York Times
Philippines election: Who is Bongbong Marcos, the president battling the Dutertes? - BBC
Quick Summary of Philippines & Bongbong Marcos
The Philippines has seen renewed discussions about impeachment in recent years, particularly involving President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr., who took office in June 2022. While no formal impeachment proceedings have been initiated against him, his administration has faced scrutiny over issues such as alleged human rights abuses, economic policies, and controversies surrounding his family’s historical legacy. Critics, including opposition lawmakers and civil society groups, have raised concerns about transparency and accountability, though the political landscape remains dominated by Marcos allies, making impeachment an unlikely prospect in the near term. The 1987 Constitution allows for impeachment on grounds like culpable violation of the Constitution, graft, and corruption, but past attempts,such as those against former presidents Joseph Estrada and Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo,have shown how difficult it is to secure the necessary congressional support. Beyond impeachment, Marcos Jr. has navigated challenges tied to his family’s controversial past, including unresolved cases related to ill-gotten wealth and the legacy of his father’s martial law regime. While his administration has focused on economic recovery and infrastructure development, opposition figures and activists continue to push for accountability, often invoking the Marcos family’s history as a rallying point. The lack of a strong, unified opposition in Congress, however, has limited the momentum for any serious impeachment effort. Instead, public discourse has centered on legal battles, historical revisionism debates, and calls for justice from victims of past abuses, ensuring that the specter of impeachment remains a distant but persistent topic in Philippine politics.Deep Dive Into Philippines & Bongbong Marcos
International Relations and Geopolitical Positioning
Under Marcos Jr., the Philippines has moved toward closer alignment with the United States and its allies amid intensifying tensions with China in the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea. Repeated maritime confrontations, including water-cannoning and dangerous maneuvers by Chinese vessels against Philippine resupply missions, have raised the security temperature and made foreign policy a more salient domestic issue. Marcos has pursued expanded U.S. access to military facilities under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, strengthened ties with Japan and Australia, and framed maritime disputes as central to national sovereignty and economic security. This more assertive posture has opposition from some groups who favor a less confrontational approach or worry about over-reliance on the U.S., but it also enjoys support among those who see China as a pressing threat. The situation has not escalated into open interstate conflict, and diplomatic channels remain active, yet the frequency of incidents and explicit alliance signaling reflect significant, though not yet crisis-level, geopolitical tension.
Media Environment, Information Ecosystem, and Digital Politics
The Philippine media environment is pluralistic but increasingly fragmented and contentious. Traditional outlets and investigative journalists remain active, and legal protections for press freedom continue on paper; at the same time, online harassment of journalists, strategic use of libel and other legal tools, and economic pressures on independent media contribute to a constrained environment. Under Marcos Jr., there has been less overt rhetorical confrontation with media than under Rodrigo Duterte, but structures that enable pressure on critical outlets remain largely intact. The information ecosystem is heavily shaped by social media platforms, where disinformation, paid content, networked political influencers, and historical revisionist narratives about the Marcos era play a prominent role. Many analysts argue that the successful rehabilitation of the Marcos family’s public image was significantly aided by long-running online campaigns that reframe Martial Law as a ‘golden age’. The coexistence of critical journalism with powerful disinformation networks and organized online harassment, without yet tipping into complete media suppression or shutdowns, indicates significant tension but short of crisis.
Political Polarization and Historical Memory
The presidency of Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. has sharpened long-standing cleavages over the legacy of the Marcos family and Martial Law, though it has not produced large-scale, continuous unrest. Politics is polarized less along detailed policy lines and more around competing narratives of history, elite alignments, and family-based loyalties. For a substantial segment of the population, Marcos Jr. represents continuity with an authoritarian past linked to human-rights abuses and grand corruption; for his supporters, he symbolizes national resurgence and a corrective to what they regard as the liberal reformist project after 1986. The 2022 electoral alliance between Marcos Jr. and Sara Duterte temporarily reduced overt elite conflict, but their subsequent political cooling and visible tensions between Marcos and Duterte camps have reintroduced factional polarization among pro-government forces. Mass-level debates around Martial Law, disinformation, and historical revisionism have become more intense online and in civil-society discourse, but institutions still function, and routine elections and legislative processes continue, suggesting significant but not yet crisis-level polarization.
Social Stability and Public Order
Despite political and historical divisions, everyday social order remains broadly intact. There are no nationwide mass protests, widespread riots, or generalized breakdowns of public security. Crime and local violence persist, including political killings and localized insurgency-related incidents, but these are long-standing features of the Philippine security landscape rather than new phenomena uniquely tied to Marcos Jr.’s tenure. The demobilization of some large-scale vigilante violence associated with the peak years of the anti-drug campaign has marginally lowered the visibility of extreme state-linked violence in urban areas, even as accountability remains limited. Governance challenges—such as criminality, local warlordism, and conflict in peripheral regions—continue in parallel with relatively routine urban life and commerce. Social stability is thus qualified: the system is not crisis-free, but it is not in a state of acute rupture or generalized disorder.
Social Tensions, Inequality, and Governance Expectations
Underlying socio-economic cleavages—persistent poverty, regional inequalities, and a large overseas workforce—continue to shape social tensions, but they have not recently escalated into systemic unrest. Expectations that Marcos Jr. would deliver rapid economic relief and post-pandemic recovery are high, especially among poorer voters who supported him on promises of unity, cheaper goods, and job creation. Disappointment over inflation, food prices (particularly rice), and uneven regional development has generated discontent, protests, and critical commentary but not widespread upheaval. In Mindanao and other conflict-affected areas, structural grievances related to land, autonomy, and historical marginalization remain, yet these are embedded in longer-running peace and security processes that predate Marcos Jr.; his administration has largely continued existing frameworks such as the BARMM transition. Social tension is therefore present but moderated by the absence of sustained mass mobilization against the government and by the continued functioning of routine social and economic life.
Trust in Institutions and Rule of Law
Formal democratic institutions—regular elections, an active Congress, and a functioning, if politicized, judiciary—remain in place. Public trust varies: the presidency traditionally commands high personal approval ratings compared with trust in Congress, parties, and the justice system. Marcos Jr. benefits from this personalized trust pattern, but his family’s historical record and ongoing corruption and impunity concerns weigh on perceptions of the rule of law among rights groups, segments of the middle class, and political opposition. The legacy of the previous administration’s ‘war on drugs’—with thousands of killings and limited accountability—continues to raise questions about institutional independence and the capacity for impartial justice, though Marcos has rhetorically softened some of the more openly punitive approaches. Criticism of perceived dynastic capture of institutions, politicization of regulatory agencies, and uneven enforcement of laws persists, yet there is no comprehensive breakdown of institutional order. This combination of functioning but contested institutions justifies a rating of mild-to-moderate tension.
Impeachment Color Legend
RED >= 50%ORANGE >= 34%
YELLOW >= 18%
GREEN < 18%