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North Korea

Supreme Leader 김 정은 (Kim Jong Un)

North Korea flag Kim Jong Un portrait

Impeachment Estimate

0%

Updated: 2026-01-06

Model Risk: 0%

Public Impeachment Search Heat: 0%

Regime Risk: 8% ? Regime Risk is completely separate from the impeachment estimate and is not used to calculate it. Regime Risk is an assessment of the overall stability of the current government regime, based on factors such as political unrest, economic instability, and social tensions. A high Regime Risk indicates a greater likelihood of significant political upheaval, which could lead to changes in leadership through means other than formal impeachment processes.

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Latest News

North Korea fires ballistic missiles, condemns US strikes on Venezuela - Reuters

Pictured: Kim Jong-un uses a forklift to pick up his daughter - The Telegraph

Why the US Operation in Venezuela Raises the Risk of War on the Korean Peninsula - The Diplomat – Asia-Pacific Current Affairs Magazine

North Korea denounces U.S. capture of Maduro as ‘serious encroachment of sovereignty’ - The Hindu

'Preparing for actual war': North Korea reveals REAL reason for missile launch amid US attack on Venezuela - WION


Quick Summary of North Korea & Kim Jong Un

North Korea, under the leadership of Kim Jong Un, remains one of the world’s most isolated and authoritarian regimes, with its governance structure centered around the ruling Kim dynasty. The country’s political system is built on absolute loyalty to the leader, and any perceived challenges to Kim Jong Un’s authority are met with severe repression. While impeachment or formal accountability mechanisms do not exist in North Korea’s one-party system, internal purges and executions of high-ranking officials have been documented, often framed as anti-corruption or anti-treason measures. These actions serve as a warning to potential dissenters and reinforce Kim’s unchallenged control over the state and military. In recent years, international attention has occasionally speculated about the stability of Kim Jong Un’s rule, particularly amid reports of health issues or rare public appearances. However, there is no credible evidence of organized opposition or a mechanism that could lead to his removal from power. The regime’s tight control over information and its extensive surveillance apparatus make any internal challenge highly unlikely. While global leaders and human rights organizations have condemned North Korea’s governance, the country’s nuclear ambitions and geopolitical maneuvering remain the primary focus of international discourse, rather than domestic political accountability.

Deep Dive Into North Korea & Kim Jong Un

internal political contestation and polarization
In the conventional sense of electoral competition, pluralistic public debate, or partisan polarization, North Korea shows effectively no internal political contestation. The Workers’ Party of Korea dominates the political system, and all formal institutions align with the leadership of Kim Jong Un. Alternative political parties either do not exist in a meaningful sense or function as satellite organizations without independent agendas. Public discourse is tightly circumscribed; criticism of the leadership, policy alternatives, or organized opposition is criminalized. As a result, there is no visible polarization along partisan lines, ideological cleavages, or competing leaders within the public sphere. To the extent that factionalism or policy disagreements may exist among elites, they are managed through opaque internal mechanisms, purges, and reassignments rather than open political struggle. Kim Jong Un’s position at the apex of the system is repeatedly reaffirmed through mass mobilization events and state media narratives, leaving no public space for polarized political competition of the kind that would register as institutional tension.

international relations and security environment
North Korea’s external environment is characterized by sustained, high-level tension centered on its nuclear and missile programs, military posture, and diplomatic isolation. Under Kim Jong Un, the country has conducted multiple nuclear tests (before the present moratorium), advanced missile capabilities, and explicitly framed these developments as vital for regime survival and national prestige. Relations with the United States and its allies, particularly South Korea and Japan, oscillate between periods of dialogue and sharp hostility, but remain fundamentally adversarial. United Nations sanctions and unilateral measures have heavily constrained North Korea’s formal economic engagement with much of the world, contributing to chronic resource shortages and dependence on a small number of external partners, notably China and, more recently, Russia. The 2018–2019 summit diplomacy raised expectations of a possible shift, but the absence of a durable agreement and subsequent return to missile testing have reinforced a climate of mutual suspicion. Military exercises on and around the Korean Peninsula, occasional border incidents, and harsh rhetoric from all sides sustain a sense of crisis-prone security dynamics. Kim Jong Un is central to this international posture: his personal decisions, strategic signaling, and public framing of nuclear weapons as non-negotiable strongly shape both the level of external pressure and the possibility of future de-escalation.

media environment and information control
The media environment in North Korea is among the most tightly controlled in the world. All formal media are state-owned or state-directed, and information flows are shaped by political considerations rather than journalistic independence. Kim Jong Un features prominently and continuously in coverage, which presents him as a near-omnipresent, paternal figure overseeing all aspects of state and society. Dissenting opinions, foreign news narratives, and critical perspectives on the leadership are systematically blocked. At the same time, technological change and proximity to China and South Korea have widened potential channels for information inflow, including smuggled USB sticks, foreign radio broadcasts, and illicit mobile communication near border regions. This has prompted recurring crackdowns under Kim Jong Un, including legislation punishing the consumption of South Korean media or foreign cultural products and stepped-up inspections of personal devices. Tension in the information sphere is therefore significant: the state seeks to preserve near-monopoly control over narratives about the leader and the outside world, while the practical realities of smuggling, technological diffusion, and human curiosity create ongoing pressure on those controls. This pressure has not led to open media pluralism or visible information-based mobilization, but it remains a structurally important fault line.

social stability and regime control
Domestically, North Korea exhibits a high degree of surface-level social stability, enforced through dense security apparatuses, party oversight, and neighborhood-level monitoring. Open protests, large-scale collective action, or visible public dissent are virtually absent. However, this stability is not analogous to that of a consensual, long-standing democracy; it is imposed and maintained through coercion, surveillance, and the curtailment of civil and political freedoms. Kim Jong Un’s leadership is central to this arrangement: the political system is structured around his personal authority, hereditary legitimacy, and extensive ideological campaigns that promote his image as the guarantor of security and national survival. Periodic purges of elites and policy shifts—such as crackdowns on market activities or foreign cultural influence—create underlying insecurity for portions of the population and the elite, but these remain contained. The overall environment is one of rigid stability with low visible tension, sustained by repression and a near-total absence of permissible opposition rather than by negotiated social compromise.

social tensions and inequalities (including markets and class-like divisions)
Beneath the surface stability, there are notable social tensions linked to economic stratification, regional disparities, and the uneven penetration of informal markets (jangmadang). Since Kim Jong Un’s rise to power, the regime has tolerated and intermittently regulated semi-legal market activity, which has become central to survival strategies for many households. This has generated new forms of inequality between those with privileged access to state resources, border trade, and foreign currency, and those dependent on more precarious, small-scale market activities. Geographic variation, particularly between Pyongyang and peripheral regions, further intensifies perceived inequalities in access to food, consumer goods, housing, and social services. The songbun status system—classifying citizens by perceived political loyalty and family background—continues to structure life chances, though marketization has complicated and partially eroded its economic effects. Under Kim Jong Un, these tensions are managed rather than openly acknowledged; policies sometimes seek to recentralize control or curb market excesses, while propaganda emphasizes unity and collective sacrifice. Social discontent is difficult to observe directly, but the structural drivers of inequality and hardship are present and periodically sharpened by sanctions, pandemic border closures, and climate-related shocks.

trust in institutions and legitimacy of leadership
Measurement of genuine trust in institutions within North Korea is inherently difficult due to the absence of independent surveys and the risks associated with expressing dissenting views. Official narratives and mass mobilization suggest overwhelming approval of Kim Jong Un and core state institutions, particularly the party, the military, and the security services. The regime invests heavily in propaganda that promotes the leader as a benevolent provider and defender against external threats, drawing on the dynastic legitimacy of the Kim family. At the same time, repeated economic hardship, chronic shortages, and the population’s growing familiarity—albeit limited—with external living standards through smuggled media and cross-border contacts raise questions about latent skepticism or fatigue. Reports from defectors and outside research hint that many citizens differentiate between survival-oriented compliance and genuine ideological commitment. Under Kim Jong Un, efforts to strengthen loyalty—such as prioritizing elite consumption in Pyongyang, high-profile construction projects, and nuclear and missile achievements framed as national victories—aim to reinforce regime legitimacy, but they coexist with persistent material deprivation. Overall, the system functions, and institutions are obeyed, yet this obedience may reflect fear, habituation, and constrained alternatives as much as authentic, widespread trust.


Impeachment Color Legend

RED >= 50%
ORANGE >= 34%
YELLOW >= 18%
GREEN < 18%