Random Political Joke - American politics is like ordering a drink on a plane: too expensive, no refills, and you didn’t really have a choice.
Nigeria
President Bola Tinubu
Impeachment Estimate
Updated: 2026-01-06
Model Risk: 5%
Public Impeachment Search Heat: 9%
Regime Risk: 29% ? Regime Risk is completely separate from the impeachment estimate and is not used to calculate it. Regime Risk is an assessment of the overall stability of the current government regime, based on factors such as political unrest, economic instability, and social tensions. A high Regime Risk indicates a greater likelihood of significant political upheaval, which could lead to changes in leadership through means other than formal impeachment processes.
30-Day Impeachment Trend
30-Day Regime Risk Trend
Latest News
Nigeria radically overhauls tax system to boost revenues - https-//www.semafor.com
Nigerian president launches hunt for assailants who killed dozens - upi.com
Nigeria's Tinubu nominates new oil regulators after chiefs resign amid Dangote dispute - Reuters
Tinubu puts his faith in the tax collectors - Africa Confidential
Tinubu seeks Senate approval for new oil and gas regulatory boards - Nigerian Observer
Quick Summary of Nigeria & Bola Tinubu
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation and largest economy, has seen its political landscape remain relatively stable despite occasional tensions, including calls for impeachment against sitting leaders. President Bola Tinubu, who assumed office in May 2023 after a contentious election, has faced scrutiny over economic policies and governance challenges. While there have been murmurs of discontent within the National Assembly and among opposition figures, no serious impeachment proceedings have been formally initiated against him. Tinubu’s administration has focused on economic reforms, such as the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of exchange rates, which have drawn both praise and criticism. These policies, while aimed at long-term growth, have contributed to short-term hardships, fueling public dissatisfaction and political pushback. Despite the occasional rhetoric from lawmakers and activists, Nigeria’s constitutional framework makes impeachment a complex and rare process, requiring a two-thirds majority in both the Senate and House of Representatives. Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress (APC) maintains a significant presence in the legislature, reducing the likelihood of a successful impeachment bid. However, persistent economic struggles and governance issues could embolden opposition efforts in the future. For now, Tinubu’s administration continues to navigate these challenges while consolidating its political influence, with impeachment remaining a distant prospect rather than an immediate threat. The focus remains on policy implementation and maintaining stability amid Nigeria’s evolving political and economic landscape.Deep Dive Into Nigeria & Bola Tinubu
International relations and external perceptions
Externally, Nigeria under Tinubu is not experiencing acute diplomatic crisis, but it operates in a complex regional and international environment. Tinubu has positioned himself as an active regional leader, notably taking the chairmanship of ECOWAS and initially supporting strong measures against military coups in neighboring states such as Niger. Domestic skepticism about potential military intervention and broader fatigue with ECOWAS sanctions, however, constrained his room for maneuver and led to a recalibration of approach. On the global stage, Tinubu’s economic reforms—especially subsidy removal and currency policy—have been received relatively positively by international financial institutions and some foreign investors, generating debates inside Nigeria about external influence over domestic policy choices. Nigeria maintains cooperative, if occasionally contentious, relations with major powers and multilateral bodies, and there are no large-scale sanctions or international isolation. The key tension lies in balancing the pursuit of external credibility and investment with domestic demands for social protection and national economic sovereignty. This produces noticeable but not severe friction in international relations, with Tinubu serving as the main symbol of Nigeria’s current economic and diplomatic direction.
Media and information environment
Nigeria’s media landscape under Tinubu is pluralistic but pressured. A vibrant mix of private and state-owned outlets, robust social media usage, and active diaspora commentary provide diverse narratives and facilitate criticism of government. Tinubu’s role in the media environment is multifaceted: as a former influential media investor and political patron, he is often perceived as having strong ties to certain outlets, which fuels debates about bias in coverage of his administration. At the same time, journalists, online commentators, and opposition figures occasionally report harassment, legal pressure, or intimidation, often under existing cybercrime and defamation laws rather than new Tinubu-specific legislation. Information disorder—misinformation, disinformation, and highly partisan narratives—circulates widely, especially around economic policy, health, and security incidents. Nonetheless, outright censorship or systematic shutdowns remain limited compared to more tightly controlled environments in other regions. The overall picture is one of a noisy, competitive information sphere with noticeable but not systematic constraints, in which Tinubu is both a subject of intense scrutiny and, in some perceptions, a beneficiary of structural media alliances.
Political polarization and elite contestation
Nigeria’s political arena under President Bola Tinubu is marked by significant, though not yet system-breaking, polarization. The contentious 2023 elections—where Tinubu won with a relatively low vote share in a three-way race and amid allegations of irregularities—deepened existing cleavages between the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and opposition parties such as the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP). Disputes over electoral integrity, questions about Tinubu’s personal background and past, and sharp disagreements on economic reforms (especially subsidy removal and foreign exchange liberalization) fuel partisan distrust. However, polarization remains largely channeled through formal arenas—courts, party competition, and media—rather than sustained mass violence between partisan camps. The political system is therefore under strain but still functional, with polarization manifesting as intense elite contestation, fragmented opposition blocs, and increasingly harsh rhetoric online and in traditional media, rather than outright institutional deadlock.
Security environment and social stability
Social stability is under considerable strain, principally due to persistent insecurity rather than direct political breakdown. Multiple violent conflicts overlap: banditry and mass abductions in the North-West, farmer–herder clashes, communal violence in parts of the Middle Belt, remnants of insurgent and jihadist activity in the North-East, piracy and criminal networks in the Niger Delta, and separatist-linked violence and state crackdowns in the South-East. Tinubu has pledged reforms in security leadership and increased coordination among security agencies, and some operations have disrupted armed groups. However, many Nigerians perceive limited improvement on the ground; kidnappings, road insecurity, and attacks on rural communities remain frequent. This produces a sense of chronic, normalized crisis rather than acute state collapse. Debates about Tinubu’s role center on whether his administration is merely continuing long-standing patterns of under-resourced, reactive security policy or whether it can introduce more coherent, community-centered, and intelligence-driven approaches. Overall, the level of physical insecurity materially constrains social stability and public confidence in the state’s capacity to protect citizens.
Socioeconomic tensions and social protest
Socioeconomic stress has escalated sharply since Tinubu’s inauguration, bringing tensions close to crisis levels for many citizens. The rapid removal of fuel subsidies and moves toward exchange-rate unification—key components of Tinubu’s economic agenda—have contributed to spikes in fuel, transport, and food prices, aggravating already high levels of poverty and inequality. Labour unions and professional associations have repeatedly threatened or organized strikes over wage erosion and living costs, and there have been sporadic protests in several cities. While the country has not experienced sustained nationwide unrest on the scale of the 2020 #EndSARS movement, the cumulative pressures of inflation, unemployment, and insecurity increase the risk of broader social mobilization. Tinubu is thus a central figure in public debates over whether painful macroeconomic reforms are necessary structural corrections or elite-driven policies that disproportionately burden ordinary Nigerians. The discontent is widespread and intense but still largely expressed through protests, union negotiations, and online activism rather than generalized violent upheaval.
Trust in institutions and perceptions of governance
Trust in major political institutions—particularly the electoral commission, judiciary, and law enforcement—remains fragile and contested. The 2023 electoral process, including the performance of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), generated widespread skepticism about transparency and technological reliability. Subsequent judicial rulings upholding Tinubu’s victory have been interpreted in opposing ways: by his supporters as evidence of institutional resilience, and by many critics as confirmation of an entrenched culture of judicial deference to incumbents. Allegations concerning corruption, patronage, and opaque decision-making—issues that long predate Tinubu—continue to shape perceptions of governance. Public scrutiny of Tinubu’s appointments, including the balance between technocrats and political loyalists, feeds debates over whether his government is reform-oriented or primarily driven by patronage networks. While there is not a wholesale withdrawal of consent from the system, surveys and public commentary suggest cautious or declining trust, with institutions seen as imperfect but still relevant arenas for contestation rather than entirely illegitimate.
Impeachment Color Legend
RED >= 50%ORANGE >= 34%
YELLOW >= 18%
GREEN < 18%