Random Political Joke - Trump says stopping drug traffickers on land is “easier.” Of course, bombing things is always easier than fixing domestic healthcare.
Iran
Supreme Leader خامنهای علی (Ali Khamenei)
Impeachment Estimate
Updated: 2026-01-06
Model Risk: 1%
Public Impeachment Search Heat: 0%
Regime Risk: 29% ? Regime Risk is completely separate from the impeachment estimate and is not used to calculate it. Regime Risk is an assessment of the overall stability of the current government regime, based on factors such as political unrest, economic instability, and social tensions. A high Regime Risk indicates a greater likelihood of significant political upheaval, which could lead to changes in leadership through means other than formal impeachment processes.
30-Day Impeachment Trend
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Latest News
Ayatollah Khamenei plans to flee to Moscow if Iran unrest intensifies - The Times
What Might US Military Action In Venezuela Mean For Iran? - Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Iran’s Khamenei says rioters ‘must be put in their place’ amid protests - Al Jazeera
Quick Summary of Iran & Ali Khamenei
Iran’s political system is structured around a unique blend of elected institutions and unelected clerical oversight, with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei holding ultimate authority over key state functions. As the highest-ranking political and religious figure in the country since 1989, Khamenei’s role is constitutionally protected from direct impeachment or removal by democratic means. The Supreme Leader is appointed by the Assembly of Experts, a body of clerics elected by the public but vetted by the Guardian Council, which ensures loyalty to the Islamic Republic’s principles. While Iran’s president and parliament are subject to oversight and potential dismissal, Khamenei’s position is insulated from such mechanisms, reinforcing the system’s theocratic foundations. Recent discussions about accountability in Iran have centered on the presidency rather than the Supreme Leader, particularly following controversies surrounding President Ebrahim Raisi’s administration. However, calls for reform or impeachment-like measures have gained little traction due to the entrenched power structures that prioritize clerical authority. Khamenei’s influence extends over the judiciary, military, and media, making any challenge to his leadership highly unlikely under the current system. While public dissatisfaction occasionally surfaces, the lack of legal pathways to remove the Supreme Leader ensures his continued dominance in shaping Iran’s domestic and foreign policies.Deep Dive Into Iran & Ali Khamenei
international_relations_and_external_pressure
Iran operates under substantial external pressure, including extensive U.S. and, to a lesser extent, European sanctions, regional rivalries, and intermittent military confrontations involving proxy actors. Ali Khamenei’s long-standing strategic line emphasizes resistance to Western, especially American, influence, strategic alignment with select non-Western powers, and support for allied non-state groups in the region. This stance significantly shapes domestic debates, as economic difficulties are often attributed by officials to sanctions and foreign hostility, while critics argue that aspects of Iran’s regional policy and nuclear posture, decided under Khamenei’s ultimate authority, have intensified international isolation. The regional environment, including tensions with Israel, Gulf states, and Western militaries, creates recurrent security incidents and raises the risk of escalation, though both Iran and many counterpart states also display caution to avoid full-scale war. Diplomatic channels, such as indirect talks over the nuclear file, remain intermittently active. The international dimension thus represents an ongoing, structural source of pressure and risk, but it is managed through a combination of deterrence and calibrated engagement rather than existing at the brink of systemic war, justifying a rating of significant but not extreme tension.
media_environment_information_control_and_digital_space
Iran’s media environment is characterized by strong state influence and legal constraints on expression, with Ali Khamenei repeatedly emphasizing the importance of cultural and ideological control in the face of what he terms Western soft warfare. State broadcasters and many print outlets align closely with official narratives, while critical journalists, activists, and independent media face periodic repression, including arrests, censorship, and website blocking. At the same time, widespread use of social media platforms, VPNs, and diaspora-based outlets has created an alternative information ecosystem that often directly challenges official accounts, especially during periods of protest or crisis. Authorities have responded with intermittent internet shutdowns, platform restrictions, and digital surveillance. This contest over narrative control has become a central axis of contemporary debates, with the Supreme Leader and security institutions framing information openness as a security threat, while many citizens see it as a basic right and a tool against corruption and abuse. The environment is therefore one of sustained contention and mutual distrust—but not total information blackout or complete media collapse—meriting a significant but sub-crisis intensity level.
political_polarization_and_elite_fragmentation
Iran’s formal political field is constrained and filtered by vetting institutions under Ali Khamenei’s leadership, which reduces visible partisan pluralism but does not eliminate underlying polarization. Instead, polarization is partly displaced from institutional politics into society and into intra-elite competition within the accepted spectrum of the Islamic Republic. Khamenei’s consistent backing of hardline currents, particularly in recent parliamentary and presidential selection cycles, has narrowed the space for reformist and moderate actors, intensifying the divide between regime insiders and a broad segment of disaffected citizens. At the same time, there remain significant tensions within the conservative camp over succession, economic policy, and the balance between ideological purity and technocratic governance. These tensions do not currently amount to outright elite breakdown, but they produce notable factional maneuvering around Khamenei’s office and questions of succession. Overall polarization is therefore significant, but it has not yet produced a full systemic rupture or continuous, nationwide violent conflict, placing it at a mid-high but not crisis level.
social_order_and_regime_stability
Despite pronounced social tensions, the overall stability of the Islamic Republic as a governing system remains relatively robust in the short term. Ali Khamenei’s central position as Supreme Leader anchors a network of security institutions—particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Basij, and intelligence bodies—that continue to demonstrate cohesion and loyalty. The state apparatus has retained its capacity to manage routine governance, deliver basic services, and enforce red lines through calibrated repression. Elections, though tightly managed, provide periodic opportunities for controlled elite circulation and for the leadership to claim domestic legitimacy. However, stability is not cost-free: it increasingly relies on securitization of dissent, narrowing inclusion, and heavy reliance on Khamenei’s personal authority. Looking ahead, uncertainties surrounding succession, demographic pressures, and economic vulnerabilities could expose structural fragilities. At present, however, the core institutions of rule remain intact and effective enough that the situation is more accurately described as stable but brittle rather than imminently unstable, justifying a mild-to-moderate tension rating rather than a crisis designation.
social_tensions_and_generational_divides
Social tensions in Iran are acute, particularly along generational, gender, and center-periphery lines. The 2022–2023 protests triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini reflected deep frustration with mandatory hijab laws, the scope of state religious authority, and broader restrictions on personal freedoms. Ali Khamenei has publicly framed such protests as externally instigated or part of a cultural invasion, signaling limited willingness to compromise on core ideological and moral issues. This stance reinforces the perception among many younger and urban Iranians that top leadership is structurally unresponsive to their demands. Economic hardship, high youth unemployment, perceived corruption, and regional inequalities amplify these grievances. While the state continues to maintain effective coercive capacity and daily life functions in a relatively orderly way, recurrent protest waves, sporadic unrest in provinces with ethnic minorities (e.g., Kurdish and Baluch areas), and ongoing confrontations over dress codes and cultural expression indicate a persistently high level of social tension. The situation stops short of civil war or nationwide sustained violence but is substantially more contentious than a simple episodic protest environment, warranting a high but not maximal rating.
trust_in_institutions_and_legitimacy_of_leadership
Public trust in key political institutions appears uneven and in many segments significantly eroded, although precise measurement is difficult due to limited transparent polling. Turnout declines and increased rates of spoiled ballots or boycotts in recent elections suggest skepticism toward the efficacy of formal political channels. Ali Khamenei remains a central symbolic and religious figure for core regime supporters and parts of the conservative base, but his legitimacy is more contested among reform-minded, secular, and younger citizens. The perception that key bodies such as the Guardian Council, judiciary, and security forces operate under his overarching authority means that institutional dissatisfaction frequently translates into dissatisfaction with the Supreme Leader himself. Corruption scandals, opaque decision-making, and the sense that electoral outcomes are pre-structured by vetting processes contribute to a belief that institutional avenues for peaceful change are constrained. At the same time, the regime still commands loyal support from significant constituencies who value ideological continuity, resistance to foreign pressure, or material linkages to state structures. Overall, legitimacy and trust show notable stress but stop short of a complete collapse across the board.
Impeachment Color Legend
RED >= 50%ORANGE >= 34%
YELLOW >= 18%
GREEN < 18%