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Iran
Supreme Leader خامنهای علی (Ali Khamenei)
Impeachment Estimate
0%
Updated: 2025-11-30
Model Risk: 0%
Public Impeachment Search Heat: 0%
30-Day Impeachment Trend
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Quick Summary of Iran & Ali Khamenei
Iran has been the focus of renewed international attention amid domestic political tensions and speculation about potential shifts in its leadership structure. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has held the country’s highest authority since 1989, remains a central figure in Iran’s theocratic system, wielding control over the judiciary, military, and key state institutions. Recent discussions about impeachment or leadership challenges within Iran’s political circles have been rare, as the Supreme Leader’s position is constitutionally protected and lacks a formal impeachment mechanism. However, growing public discontent over economic hardships, repression of dissent, and the government’s handling of protests,particularly following the 2022 nationwide uprisings,has fueled debates about the stability of the regime. Some analysts suggest that while Khamenei’s authority appears unassailable in the short term, internal power struggles among hardliners, reformists, and the Revolutionary Guards could shape Iran’s future trajectory, especially as questions arise about succession planning given Khamenei’s advanced age.
The prospect of any significant political upheaval in Iran remains uncertain, but recent developments have underscored the regime’s vulnerability to both domestic and external pressures. The death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May 2024 briefly reignited speculation about potential power shifts, though Khamenei swiftly consolidated control by overseeing a tightly managed transition. Meanwhile, Iran’s deepening isolation due to its support for regional proxies, nuclear tensions with the West, and crackdowns on civil society have further strained its governance. While outright impeachment of Khamenei remains implausible under the current system, the convergence of economic crises, generational discontent, and factional rivalries within the establishment could test the resilience of Iran’s leadership in the coming years. Observers continue to monitor signs of instability, particularly as the regime balances repression with attempts to maintain legitimacy amid a restive population.
Impeachment Color Legend
RED >= 50%
ORANGE >= 34%
YELLOW >= 18%
GREEN < 18%