Germany

Externally, Germany operates in a tense international environment marked by Russia’s war against Ukraine, strategic competition between the United States and China, and debates about European strategic autonomy. These are high-stakes issues, but domestic contention over them remains relatively controlled compared to migration or social policy. There is broad elite consensus on Germany’s EU and NATO memberships, support for Ukraine in principle, and the importance of transatlantic ties, though disagreement persists over the scale and speed of military and financial assistance. Merz broadly supports a pro-Western, pro-EU orientation and advocates a more assertive security and defense posture, criticizing the government when he perceives delays or half-measures in arms deliveries to Ukraine or in meeting defense-spending commitments. His stance reinforces continuity in Germany’s grand-strategic orientation while pressing for clearer, sometimes more hawkish positions. Domestic debates about sanctions, energy diversification, and relations with China are vigorous but remain within the bounds of conventional policy disagreement in a mature democracy, with no major actor questioning the fundamental alliance structures. As a result, tensions in foreign and security policy are present but not crisis-level in domestic political terms.

Germany’s media environment is pluralistic, with strong public broadcasters and a diverse private press and digital ecosystem. However, debates over media bias, the role of public broadcasting, and the impact of social media on polarization have intensified. Right-leaning and populist actors often accuse public media of liberal or left-leaning bias, while many journalists and academics highlight the challenges of covering extremist narratives without amplifying them. Merz is a prominent actor in these debates: he has criticized public broadcasters for alleged partiality and high costs, and his statements frequently trigger polarized coverage and vigorous commentary. Supporters see this as overdue scrutiny of entrenched institutions; critics warn that delegitimizing public broadcasters risks undermining trust in fact-based reporting and can push segments of the audience towards more partisan or conspiratorial information sources. At the same time, Merz is a frequent guest in mainstream talk shows and uses social media actively, exemplifying how established elites both contest and rely on legacy media for agenda-setting. The result is a contentious but still broadly functional media sphere, with rising segmentation of audiences but continued centrality of mainstream outlets in shaping public discourse.

Germany remains an institutionalized multi-party democracy, but polarization around migration, identity, and economic policy has intensified. The rise of the AfD to double-digit national support and its leading position in parts of eastern Germany marks a clear departure from the post-war norm of broad centrist dominance. Friedrich Merz, as CDU leader, occupies a pivotal position in this reconfiguration. His moves to sharpen the CDU’s profile on migration, internal security, and culture-war questions are interpreted by some as a strategic attempt to reclaim voters from the AfD and disillusioned conservatives; by others as a normalization of harder-line rhetoric that narrows the distance to the far right. Internal CDU debates—e.g. on cooperation with AfD at local levels and on how far to distance the party from the “Brandmauer” (firewall) principle—have become emblematic of broader questions about how the political center should respond to populist challengers. While parliamentary processes function and coalition bargaining remains orderly, the party landscape is more fragmented, coalition formation more complex, and the normative consensus about red lines towards the far right is under visible strain.

Overall social stability remains relatively robust: there is no widespread political violence, institutions operate normally, and economic and social policies are debated through conventional parliamentary and media channels. Nonetheless, there are localized flashpoints. Cost-of-living pressures, energy-price shocks linked to Russia’s war against Ukraine, and regional disparities—especially between eastern and western federal states—feed discontent and fuel support for anti-establishment actors. Street protests occur across the spectrum, from climate activism and farmers’ demonstrations to anti-lockdown and anti-establishment rallies, but these have largely remained peaceful and episodic rather than systemic or insurrectionary. Merz positions the CDU as a force of order and stability, criticizing what he portrays as erratic or ideologically driven policy from the traffic-light coalition (SPD–Greens–FDP). He stresses fiscal prudence and law-and-order themes, seeking to appeal to voters anxious about economic security and cultural change. His leadership thus channelizes discontent into electoral and parliamentary competition rather than extra-institutional confrontation, contributing to stability even as he also sharpens the tone of oppositional politics.

Societal tensions are noticeable but not at a breakdown stage. Public debates over migration, asylum, and integration—especially after the 2015–2016 refugee influx and subsequent arrivals—remain among the most contentious issues in German politics. Concerns range from housing, local service capacity, and labor-market integration to questions of cultural change, antisemitism, and internal security. Merz has played a central role in reframing these debates inside the mainstream: he regularly emphasizes alleged strains on welfare systems, the need for stricter deportations of rejected asylum seekers, and clearer expectations of integration, and he criticizes the governing coalition as too permissive. His rhetoric—such as high-profile comments about irregular migration, migration-related crime, and benefits claimed by asylum seekers—has been praised by supporters as addressing ‘taboo’ issues and criticized by opponents as stigmatizing and risk-amplifying existing prejudices. At the same time, large civic mobilizations both for and against stricter migration policies, and broad protests against right-wing extremism and antisemitism, indicate a socially contested but still pluralistic environment, with strong counter-mobilizations whenever extremist narratives seem to gain ground.

Trust in core democratic institutions in Germany—constitutional court, federal presidency, and the basic framework of representative democracy—remains comparatively high by international standards, but there is noticeable erosion in confidence in parties and government performance. Voter volatility, declining identification with traditional Volksparteien (mass catch-all parties), and the growth of protest voting with the AfD and smaller formations indicate skepticism about whether existing parties adequately represent societal interests. Merz’s role is twofold. As CDU leader, he attempts to restore his party’s status as a major, programmatically clear alternative to the current coalition, emphasizing competence on economic and security issues. This may strengthen the perceived responsiveness of the system by offering voters a clearer choice. At the same time, his frequent harsh criticism of the governing coalition and his depiction of their policies as fundamentally misguided can contribute to a narrative of systemic underperformance. His stance on cooperation with AfD—rejecting formal alliances while being urged by some in his party’s base to adopt tougher stances—has become a litmus test for the resilience of democratic norms. To date, the national-level commitment to a firewall against the AfD holds, but controversies at municipal and state levels show that this norm is contested in practice.