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Egypt
Presient السيسي عبد الفتاح (Abdel Fattah el-Sisi)
Impeachment Estimate
Updated: 2026-01-06
Model Risk: 5%
Public Impeachment Search Heat: 0%
Regime Risk: 25% ? Regime Risk is completely separate from the impeachment estimate and is not used to calculate it. Regime Risk is an assessment of the overall stability of the current government regime, based on factors such as political unrest, economic instability, and social tensions. A high Regime Risk indicates a greater likelihood of significant political upheaval, which could lead to changes in leadership through means other than formal impeachment processes.
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Latest News
Egypt’s president meets Saudi foreign minister amid Yemen escalation - Middle East Monitor
UK won’t deport Egyptian man who praised killing ‘Zionists’ - JNS.org
Egypt’s President Meets Saudi Foreign Minister as Yemen Tensions Escalate - The Voice of Africa
Quick Summary of Egypt & Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
Egypt has not experienced formal impeachment proceedings against its leaders in modern history, and President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi remains firmly in power with little domestic or international pressure to remove him through such mechanisms. As a former military general who took office in 2014 following a coup that ousted President Mohamed Morsi, el-Sisi has consolidated authority through constitutional amendments, crackdowns on dissent, and a tightly controlled political system. While criticism of his government exists,particularly regarding human rights abuses, economic struggles, and restrictions on free speech,no credible movement or legal framework currently exists to challenge his presidency through impeachment. The Egyptian constitution does allow for the removal of a president under specific conditions, such as treason or criminal violations, but these provisions are effectively unenforceable under the current political climate. Internationally, el-Sisi’s government has faced scrutiny from human rights organizations and some Western governments, but this has not translated into calls for his removal. The United States and European Union have occasionally expressed concerns over Egypt’s democratic backsliding, yet strategic interests,such as regional stability, counterterrorism cooperation, and the Suez Canal,often take precedence in diplomatic relations. Domestically, opposition figures and activists who might push for accountability are frequently suppressed, leaving little room for organized resistance. While economic hardships and public discontent have sparked sporadic protests, el-Sisi’s administration has responded with swift repression, ensuring that any discussion of impeachment remains purely hypothetical. For now, his leadership appears secure, with no imminent threat to his position through legal or political means.Deep Dive Into Egypt & Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
International relations and external alignments
Egypt’s international posture under Sisi seeks to project the country as a pillar of regional stability and a key security partner. Cairo maintains strong ties with Gulf monarchies, security and aid relationships with the United States, and an expanding set of military and economic links with European states and Russia. The government leverages its role in Gaza-related diplomacy, migration control, and counterterrorism to secure international support and financial resources, even amid concerns voiced by some partners about human rights and governance. Tensions do arise around issues such as IMF conditionalities, human rights critiques from Western institutions, and periodic frictions with neighbors (e.g., over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam), but these have not generally escalated into open confrontation or systemic isolation. The external environment is thus marked by manageable but persistent pressures rather than acute crisis.
Media environment, civil liberties, and public discourse
The media environment under Sisi is characterized by extensive state influence, restrictive laws on expression and association, and a constrained space for independent journalism and civil society activity. Traditional broadcast and print media are largely aligned with official narratives, and online spaces are monitored, with website blocking, arrests, and prosecutions under security and anti-terrorism legislation. Independent NGOs and human rights organizations face registration rules, funding constraints, and legal pressure; some operate from exile. This has produced a climate of self-censorship and a narrow band of acceptable public discourse on sensitive political issues, including criticism of Sisi, the military, or major state projects. While not amounting to total information blackout—social media, diaspora outlets, and informal networks continue to circulate alternative views—the level of restriction and associated legal risk constitute crisis-level tension when benchmarked against norms of open public debate.
Political polarization and contestation around executive power
Under Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Egypt exhibits significant—though asymmetrically expressed—political polarization. Formal opposition is heavily constrained through legal, administrative, and security measures, limiting open partisan competition and producing an outward appearance of consensus around the presidency. However, surveys, exiled opposition media, and periodic protest episodes (e.g., 2019 demonstrations) indicate substantial latent societal and political disagreement over Sisi’s leadership, the 2013 military intervention, and the broad security-first governance model. The institutional marginalization of organized opposition has pushed much contestation into informal, private, or digital spaces and into diaspora communities. Tension is notable but falls short of chronic mass mobilization or open, sustained street confrontation, hence a mid-range rating rather than crisis level.
Social stability and risk of mass unrest
On the surface, Egypt under Sisi is relatively stable: large-scale, sustained nationwide protests are rare compared with the 2011–2013 period, and the state’s security apparatus maintains a high degree of control over public space. The government emphasizes order, counterterrorism, and infrastructure-led development, which many citizens associate with a return to everyday predictability after the upheavals of the Arab uprisings. At the same time, periodic localized protests, grievances over price increases and subsidy reforms, and discontent among some youth and professional groups suggest a non-trivial risk of future unrest, particularly if economic strain deepens. The state’s capacity and willingness to pre-empt or suppress mobilization have so far kept unrest from becoming systemic, so tensions are present but not at crisis levels.
Socioeconomic pressures and social cohesion
Economic reforms, currency devaluations, rising inflation, and subsidy restructurings have imposed substantial burdens on lower- and middle-income Egyptians. Mega-projects promoted under Sisi, such as the New Administrative Capital and large infrastructure initiatives, are presented by the government as engines of modernization and pride, but critics question their opportunity costs and contribution to inclusive growth. These dynamics generate socioeconomic stress and feelings of precariousness, particularly among younger cohorts facing high underemployment and limited upward mobility. Yet social fragmentation has not translated into widespread communal violence or a total breakdown of social cohesion; family and community networks remain important buffers. The tension level is significant—especially in relation to expectations raised during and after 2011—but does not yet constitute a generalized societal breakdown.
Trust in political institutions and governance legitimacy
Trust in state institutions is complex and differentiated. The military and security institutions, closely associated with Sisi’s rule, retain considerable support in segments of the population that prioritize order and national security, especially in light of regional instability and past domestic turmoil. At the same time, concerns about corruption, lack of political inclusion, and limited accountability generate skepticism among other groups, including parts of the urban middle classes, activists, and politically engaged youth. Elections and constitutional changes have generally confirmed Sisi’s dominance but are criticized by international observers and domestic opponents for restricted competition, which affects external and internal perceptions of democratic legitimacy. The result is neither uniformly high nor catastrophically low trust but a contested legitimacy landscape, with significant tension around the credibility and responsiveness of key political institutions.
Impeachment Color Legend
RED >= 50%ORANGE >= 34%
YELLOW >= 18%
GREEN < 18%