Random Political Joke - Politicians say they’re “public servants.” Okay, show me a servant with that pension.
Brazil
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Impeachment Estimate
Updated: 2026-01-06
Model Risk: 15%
Public Impeachment Search Heat: 9%
Regime Risk: 14% ? Regime Risk is completely separate from the impeachment estimate and is not used to calculate it. Regime Risk is an assessment of the overall stability of the current government regime, based on factors such as political unrest, economic instability, and social tensions. A high Regime Risk indicates a greater likelihood of significant political upheaval, which could lead to changes in leadership through means other than formal impeachment processes.
30-Day Impeachment Trend
30-Day Regime Risk Trend
Latest News
Brazil says US crossed 'unacceptable line' on Venezuela as officials track border - Reuters
Brazil's Lula Says US Strikes A 'Serious Affront' To Venezuelan Sovereignty - Barron's
Brazil Says U.S. Operation Sets Dangerous Precedent - The Wall Street Journal
Turkey’s Brazil-Style Lawfare Means Harder Authoritarianism - Jacobin
Quick Summary of Brazil & Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva
Brazil is the largest country in South America, known for its vibrant culture, diverse economy, and complex political landscape. In recent years, the nation has faced significant political turmoil, particularly surrounding the impeachment of former President Dilma Rousseff in 2016. This event marked a turning point in Brazilian politics, leading to the rise of conservative forces and a shift in the country’s governance. The impeachment was framed as a fight against corruption, though critics argued it was a politically motivated move to remove Rousseff’s Workers’ Party (PT) from power. The aftermath saw increased polarization, with many Brazilians divided over the legitimacy of the process and its long-term impact on democracy. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, commonly known as Lula, is a central figure in Brazil’s political history and has been at the heart of its recent controversies. A founding member of the PT and a two-term president (2003–2010), Lula was once celebrated for his social programs that lifted millions out of poverty. However, his legacy became entangled in corruption scandals, most notably the *Lava Jato* (Car Wash) investigation, which led to his conviction in 2017 and a subsequent prison sentence. His conviction was later annulled in 2021 on procedural grounds, allowing him to run for office again. In 2022, Lula narrowly defeated incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in a contentious election, returning to the presidency amid ongoing debates about corruption, judicial overreach, and the stability of Brazil’s democratic institutions. His presidency continues to be scrutinized, with supporters praising his efforts to restore social policies and critics warning of potential abuses of power.Deep Dive Into Brazil & Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva
International relations and Brazil’s global positioning
Externally, Brazil under Lula has largely reactivated long-standing diplomatic traditions rather than entering a crisis environment. Lula has sought to reassert Brazil’s role as a leader in the Global South, deepening engagement in BRICS, advocating for reform of global governance institutions, and positioning the country as a key actor in climate diplomacy, particularly around Amazon protection. These moves enjoy relatively broad elite support but can generate internal debate over alignments with major powers, Brazil’s stance on conflicts such as Russia–Ukraine and Israel–Palestine, and the balance between economic pragmatism and human-rights or democratic-norm considerations. Lula’s foreign policy is generally framed as autonomous and multipolar, which sometimes draws criticism from Western partners yet fits a long-standing Brazilian diplomatic tradition. Tensions are noticeable in specific controversies, but Brazil’s international environment is not characterized by acute external conflict or isolation, keeping overall stress levels relatively low.
Media environment, information ecosystem, and public debate
Brazil’s media environment combines relatively robust mainstream outlets with a highly fragmented digital sphere. Lula’s role is central in ongoing debates over regulation of digital platforms, misinformation, and the boundaries of free speech. Supporters of the government emphasize the need to curb disinformation that fueled election denialism and the January 2023 attacks, while critics fear that regulatory initiatives could chill political expression and be used selectively against right-leaning actors. Polarized narratives about Lula himself—depicting him either as a defender of democracy and social justice or as a corrupt, illegitimate leader—circulate widely on social media, reinforcing echo chambers. The Supreme Court’s and electoral authorities’ actions against certain online content and accounts, especially those aligned with Bolsonaro, have intensified the debate over judicial power versus information freedoms. The result is a contentious but still pluralistic media space with significant tension around norms, rather than outright censorship or collapse of public discourse.
Political polarization
Brazil’s party system has long been fragmented, but polarization has sharpened into a personalized and affective split centered on Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and former president Jair Bolsonaro. Lula’s return to power in 2023, after a contested judicial saga and the annulment of his corruption convictions, has reinforced his symbolic status as both emblematic of social inclusion for supporters and of alleged systemic corruption or left-wing overreach for detractors. The January 8, 2023 storming of government buildings in Brasília by Bolsonaro supporters illustrates significant, though not ongoing, institutional stress driven by polarization. While the political system continues to function and elections remain competitive, mutual mistrust between major partisan camps, especially around the legitimacy of Lula’s presidency and of the 2022 election result, sustains a level of tension beyond what is typical in stable, low-polarization democracies.
Social stability and public order
Despite incidents such as the January 8, 2023 attacks and periodic protests, Brazil is not presently experiencing sustained nationwide upheaval. Core state functions continue, the military remains in barracks, and Lula’s government operates within constitutional boundaries. Lula has emphasized institutional normalcy and coalition-building to lower the temperature after Bolsonaro’s confrontational presidency. Nonetheless, high criminal violence, localized land disputes, clashes over environmental enforcement, and sporadic politicized demonstrations indicate non-trivial risks to social peace in certain regions. The memory of recent democratic stress—combined with lingering radicalization among some Bolsonaro-aligned networks—keeps the risk of episodic spikes in disorder above the level of a fully calm, long-consolidated democracy. Overall, day-to-day life is relatively stable, but the political system is operating in a context of elevated sensitivity rather than full tranquility.
Social tensions and inequality
Brazil remains marked by high levels of socioeconomic inequality, regional disparities, and racialized patterns of exclusion. Lula’s political identity is closely tied to addressing poverty and inequality—through welfare programs such as Bolsa Família (revived and expanded in his current term), minimum-wage policies, and rhetoric of social inclusion—which mobilizes strong support among lower-income groups but can exacerbate perceptions of distributive conflict among sectors that fear higher taxes, fiscal instability, or state overreach. Persistent problems of violent crime, police violence, land conflicts (including in the Amazon and in agribusiness frontiers), and urban precarity contribute to underlying social friction. While these tensions are not manifesting as continuous, large-scale unrest, they are structurally significant and deeply intertwined with Lula’s agenda, which is viewed alternately as a remedy for historical injustices or as a driver of economic and political risk.
Trust in institutions and the rule of law
Trust in Brazilian institutions is mixed and stratified. Lula’s political trajectory is central to ongoing debates about judicial impartiality and anti-corruption efforts. His imprisonment and later exoneration—after rulings that found procedural flaws and judicial bias in Operation Car Wash (Lava Jato)—have polarized perceptions: for some, they confirm a politicized judiciary and selective anti-corruption campaign; for others, they illustrate the capacity of institutions, including the Supreme Federal Court, to correct abuses and uphold due process. The Supreme Court and electoral authorities gained visibility by countering misinformation and attempts to delegitimize the 2022 election, actions praised as democratic safeguards by Lula’s camp and criticized as overreach by segments of the right. Congress remains a pivotal arena where Lula must form broad coalitions with centrist and conservative forces, which reinforces perceptions of transactional politics but also demonstrates institutional resilience. Overall, democratic procedures are functioning, yet skepticism about fairness, corruption, and elite impunity limits trust to a moderate level.
Impeachment Color Legend
RED >= 50%ORANGE >= 34%
YELLOW >= 18%
GREEN < 18%