Argentina — Impeachment Index

Impeachment Estimate

15%

Updated: 2026-01-06

Model Risk: 15%

Public Impeachment Search Heat: 9%

Regime Risk: 33% ? Regime Risk is completely separate from the impeachment estimate and is not used to calculate it. Regime Risk is an assessment of the overall stability of the current government regime, based on factors such as political unrest, economic instability, and social tensions. A high Regime Risk indicates a greater likelihood of significant political upheaval, which could lead to changes in leadership through means other than formal impeachment processes.

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Latest News

US oil baron Harold Hamm sets sights on Javier Milei’s Argentina - Financial Times

Milei Euphoria Drives Argentina Sovereign Risk to Seven-Year Low - Bloomberg.com

Hamm and Dead Cow - National Review

Milei cheers Trump-ordered capture of Maduro in Venezuela - Buenos Aires Times

How Javier Milei led an economic revolution in Argentina - MoneyWeek

Quick Summary of Argentina & Javier Milei

Argentina has recently been gripped by political turbulence as President Javier Milei faces growing scrutiny over his controversial policies and leadership style. Since taking office in December 2023, Milei, a libertarian outsider, has implemented sweeping economic reforms aimed at slashing public spending, deregulating markets, and reducing the size of the state. However, his aggressive approach has sparked backlash from opposition parties, labor unions, and even some allies, who accuse him of undermining democratic institutions and exacerbating social inequality. While there has been no formal impeachment process initiated against Milei, his administration has faced multiple protests, legal challenges, and calls for his removal, particularly after his government pushed through a massive omnibus bill that critics argue overreaches executive authority. The debate over Milei’s potential impeachment has intensified amid allegations of authoritarian tendencies and economic mismanagement. Opposition lawmakers have accused him of violating constitutional norms by bypassing Congress and ruling by decree, while his supporters argue that drastic measures are necessary to rescue Argentina from its chronic economic crisis. Although impeachment remains unlikely due to Milei’s coalition holding a significant bloc in the lower house, the political climate remains volatile. Recent polls suggest declining public approval, and tensions continue to rise as the government struggles to stabilize the economy while maintaining its radical reform agenda. The situation underscores the deep divisions in Argentine politics and the challenges of governing under extreme polarization.

Deep Dive Into Argentina & Javier Milei

International Orientation and External Relations

In foreign policy, Milei has introduced stylistic and directional changes, including strong rhetorical alignment with certain Western leaders, a critical stance toward left-wing governments in the region, and skepticism toward some multilateral arrangements, while emphasizing closer ties with the United States, Israel, and market-oriented partners. This represents a shift from previous Argentine administrations’ more diverse or regionally embedded diplomatic posture. The changes have generated debate within domestic elites and among neighboring governments, but have not produced acute diplomatic isolation or major external conflict. Economic constraints, such as debt obligations and the need for external financing, still encourage pragmatic engagement with a broad set of actors, including multilateral institutions. Overall, international relations remain functional, with some increased uncertainty and reorientation rather than crisis-level tension.

Media and Information Environment

Argentina’s media environment is pluralistic but highly contentious. Traditional television, radio, and print outlets are often perceived as aligned with specific political or economic interests, while digital platforms amplify polarized narratives. Javier Milei maintains a highly visible presence on social media and frequently engages directly with journalists and critics, at times in confrontational terms, which can erode norms of mutual respect between officeholders and the press. Allegations of bias, the questioning of journalistic legitimacy, and the use of strong personal and ideological language contribute to a climate where citizens encounter sharply divergent accounts of political and economic developments. However, there is still a diversity of outlets and no generalized censorship regime; independent investigative reporting continues, and citizens can access a wide range of perspectives. The main tension lies in escalating rhetorical conflict and selective trust rather than a complete breakdown of media pluralism.

Political Polarization

Argentina is experiencing pronounced political polarization, with Javier Milei functioning as both a catalyst and a symbol of deeper ideological divides. His self-described anarcho-capitalist and anti-establishment discourse sharply contrasts with Peronist, center-left, and more traditional center-right currents. The 2023 election and subsequent policy agenda have intensified preexisting cleavages between those favoring aggressive market liberalization and state retrenchment, and those prioritizing social protection and state-led development. Public debate has become highly confrontational in tone, with demonstrations and counter-demonstrations, strong partisan alignment in traditional and digital media, and growing difficulty in constructing broad, cross-party legislative coalitions. While institutions continue to operate and electoral competition remains meaningful, the level of rhetorical escalation, mutual delegitimization among political actors, and concentration of attention around Milei as a polarizing figure justify a high but not yet outright breakdown-level score.

Social Stability and Everyday Order

Despite high protest activity and economic strain, the basic functioning of daily life and core public services continues. There is no generalized civil conflict, and the security apparatus and local governments remain operative. However, elevated inflation, real-wage erosion, increased poverty indicators, and uncertainty about the pace and distributional impact of reforms affect perceptions of personal and economic security. Javier Milei’s framing of his program as a decisive break with past economic models increases a sense of volatility: supporters view the disruption as necessary to reestablish long-term stability, while critics see it as heightening social vulnerability and risk of disorder. This tension manifests in episodic supply disruptions, labor disputes, and concerns about crime and social unrest, but has not yet translated into systemic collapse or widespread, sustained violence, warranting a classification as significant but short of full crisis.

Social Tensions and Protest

Economic adjustment measures—sharp fiscal tightening, deregulation initiatives, and cuts or restructuring in subsidies and social programs—have generated substantial social tensions. Trade unions, social movements, and segments of the middle and lower-income population have engaged in large-scale protests and strikes against Milei’s agenda, particularly around labor reforms, public sector downsizing, and changes to collective bargaining frameworks. At the same time, there is a significant social base that strongly supports rapid shock therapy as necessary to address inflation, debt, and chronic macroeconomic imbalances, creating competing street-level expressions of support and opposition. While these tensions have not produced a generalized breakdown of order, the combination of recurring mass mobilization, localized confrontations, and heightened rhetoric about public security and the regulation of protest places social tension at a crisis-adjacent but not unprecedented level for Argentina’s contentious political culture.

Trust in Political and State Institutions

Public trust in parties, Congress, and the political class was already low prior to Milei’s election, with frustration over recurrent economic crises, inflation, and perceptions of corruption across the political spectrum. Milei capitalizes on this disillusionment through anti-caste rhetoric aimed at delegitimizing established politicians and parts of the bureaucracy. This strategy has both mobilized segments of the electorate and heightened skepticism toward traditional institutions, including opposition parties and intra-elite negotiation mechanisms. At the same time, certain institutional checks—such as judicial review, congressional bargaining, and federal–provincial negotiations—continue to function, and some citizens see institutional resistance to the government’s more radical proposals as a sign of resilience rather than decay. Overall trust in institutions remains fragile and contested, but not yet at the point of systemic breakdown, hence a mid-to-high score reflecting accumulated wear combined with ongoing, albeit strained, institutional performance.

Impeachment Color Legend

RED >= 50%
ORANGE >= 34%
YELLOW >= 18%
GREEN < 18%